Vulnerability and resilience of hydropower generation under climate change scenarios: Haditha dam reservoir case study

Hydropower is the primary renewable energy source that uses the energy of flowing water streams from rivers and reservoirs, and the hydrological patterns and conditions significantly influence its potential. The study aims to explore how climate change would impact the Euphrates River Basin's discharge patterns, the reservoir's inflow volume, and the potential of future hydropower plants at Haditha dam in the hyper-arid region by using downscaled five General Circulation Models (GCMs) driven by CMIP6 and three scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSPs). The forecasts indicated an overall basin temperature increase (up to 2.3 °C) and a significant decrease in precipitation (up to −6.2%). The flow declined by 18.28%, and the reduction in inflow volume of the reservoir ranged from 57 to 44 BCM, a reduction of up to 14.71%. The hydropower-generated output drawdown is up to 15%, ranging from 0.29 to 1.16 TWh per annum. The hydropower performance criteria indices under scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5) revealed a downtrend in the resilience index, where the recovery rate (17.63, 34.25, and 41.75%), respectively, indicating that the reservoir requires a relatively long period to meet the target hydropower demand, leading to a vulnerability increase. [Display omitted] •Evaluating how arid regions rely on hydropower plants to meet demand.•High temperatures accompanied by low rainfall led to a decline in flow & storage.•The hydropower indices revealed a declining resilience alongside an increase in vulnerability.•Hydro plant capacity depends on climate scenario intensity.•The resilience of hydroelectric power production to vulnerability depends on the reservoir recovery factor.