Direct and indirect impacts of land use/cover change on urban heat environment: a 15-year panel data study across 365 Chinese cities during summer daytime and nighttime

Context Land use/cover change (LUCC) can directly and indirectly affect surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) and the effects need to be decomposed. Objectives To perform long-term trend analyses of contribution indexes (CIs) of land use types to urban heat environment in cities and to deconstruct direct and indirect effects of LUCC on SUHII within geographical regions. Methods Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope were used to examine the trends of CIs and SUHII in 365 cities during summer of 2005–2019. Structural equation models were established to quantify direct and indirect effects of land use types’ CIs on SUHII in six geographical regions of China. Results First, SUHII in 78.08% and 73.70% of the Chinese cities increased during summer daytime and nighttime, respectively. Second, the CI of built-up land significantly increased across more than half of the cities in all the six regions. Third, not all land use types exerted both direct and indirect effects on SUHII. At daytime, the CI of cropland (direct) was the dominant factor in East China (1.386), South-central (− 0.637), and Northwest (− 0.399) regions. At nighttime, the CI of water bodies (both direct and indirect) was the dominant factor in Northwest (0.506) and Northeast (0.697) regions while CI of built-up land (both direct and indirect) determined in North China (0.476). Conclusions Separation of direct and indirect effects of land use types on SUHII had practical implications for cities to optimize the structures and functions of ecosystems and to take regionally based actions improving the urban heat environment.