Driving factors and peaking of CO2 emissions: An empirical analysis of Hunan Province

Understanding the driving factors of CO2 emissions and analyzing its trend is of great significance for formulating and optimizing carbon emission reduction policies. Taking Hunan Province as an example, this study adopted the LMDI method to investigate the driving factors of CO2 emissions in 2005–2020, and then presented the strategy for peaking emissions by 2030 via the simulation method. Results show that economic activity (output), number of vehicles, power generation of standard coal, and energy intensity of the production sector are the main driving factors affecting to CO2 emissions, with an average contribution of 7.54 %, 2.27 %, 1.95 %, and −6.86 %, respectively. Simulation results show that Hunan would likely achieve carbon peaking around 2030, within the peak range of 308.5–325.2 million tons CO2 depending on the economic growth rate setting. Moreover, the industrial and energy production and processing conversion sectors are key sectors for achieving a carbon peak, with average emissions contributions exceeding 35 % and 25 % during peak years, respectively. Overall, the study proposes a simple and reliable benchmark to investigate the pathway to achieve carbon peaking and provide a reference for other provinces and countries at the same development stage to achieve carbon peaking. •Main contributors to CO2 emissions growth in Hunan are identified.•Latest policy documents are used to set key indicators in peaking scenario.•Strictly implementing control measures ensures carbon peaking around 2030 in Hunan.•More active policies must be adopted to achieve carbon peaking in the key sectors.