Examining the impacts of climatological factors and technological advancement on wheat production: A road framework for sustainable grain production in India

This study marks the pioneering use of time-series econometric techniques and methods, including ARDL, FMOLS, and CCR framework, to examine the short-run dynamic and long-run impacts of climatic change and agricultural technologies on wheat production in India. The research covers the period from 1991 to 2018, thereby spanning nearly three decades. To enhance the assessment of factors influencing wheat production, we incorporated agricultural employment, agricultural credit, and cultivated land into the empirical model. By doing so, we aimed to gain a deeper understanding of the influence of fundamental factors on wheat production dynamics during the study period. In addition, the Granger causality test was employed to determine causational direction among the underlying variables. Results indicate that climatological factors such as precipitation pattern and carbon emissions contribute to an increase in wheat production. In addition, the results indicate that advanced technology has considerably contributed to the increase in wheat production. The ARDL method's long-term results were confirmed and validated by econometric techniques including FMOLS and CCR. According to Granger's estimation of causality, the relationship between farm equipment, agricultural labor, and wheat crop yield is bidirectional. The findings regarding causality indicate that climatological factors had a significant impact on wheat production. To mitigate this issue, the government should develop new crop varieties that are well-suited to the agroclimatic conditions.