Maize yield under a changing climate in Uganda: long-term impacts for climate smart agriculture

Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) practices play a crucial role in enhancing agricultural resilience. However, there is a need for a more comprehensive exploration of their specific impact on maize productivity under future climate change scenarios. While previous studies focused mainly on CSA effects on crop yield, a broader investigation is needed encompassing factors like water use efficiency, soil water content, and crop evapotranspiration. This study addresses this gap, aiming to assess the effects of diverse CSA practices on maize productivity in mid-western Uganda under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 for mid-century (2040–2069) and end-century (2070–2099) climate change scenarios. Seven CSA treatments, including conventional practice, half-moon pits, permanent planting basins of 20 cm and 30 cm depth, mulches of 2 cm, 4 cm, and 6 cm thicknesses, were assessed using the AquaCrop model and field experiments. The results reveal substantial increases in maize grain yield (25–228%) and water use efficiency (1–53%) due to future CSA practices under projected climate change conditions, highlighting the potential for long-term sustainability. Also, specific CSA treatments exhibited notable effects on maize productivity under varying climate change scenarios, addressing critical knowledge gaps and guiding the optimal utilization of CSA practices for improved maize productivity. This research offers valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing and tailoring CSA interventions for sustainable maize production in the face of progressive climate change.