Incorporation of water quality index models with machine learning-based techniques for real-time assessment of aquatic ecosystems

Water quality index (WQI) is a well-established tool for assessing the overall quality of fresh inland-waters. However, the effectiveness of real-time assessment of aquatic ecosystems using the WQI is usually impacted by the absence of some water quality parameters in which their accurately in-situ measurements are impossible and face difficulties. Using a rich water quality dataset spanned from 1980 to 2023, we employed four machine learning-based models to estimate the British Colombia WQI (BCWQI) in the Lake Päijänne, Finland, without parameters like chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total phosphorus (TP). Measurement of both COD and TP is time-consuming, needs laboratory equipment and labor costs, and faces sampling-related difficulties. Our results suggest the machine learning-based models successfully estimate the BCWQI in Lake Päijänne when TP and COD are omitted from the dataset. The long-short term memory model is the least sensitive model to exclusion of COD and TP from inputs. This model with the coefficient of determination and root-mean squared error of 0.91 and 0.11, respectively, outperforms the support vector regression, random forest, and neural network models in real-time estimation of the BCWQI in Lake Päijänne. Incorporation of BCWQI with the machine learning-based models could enhance assessment of overall quality of inland-waters with a limited database in a more economical and time-saving way. Our proposed method is an effort to replace the traditional offline water quality assessment tools with a real-time model and improve understanding of decision-makers on the effectiveness of management practices on the changes in lake water quality. [Display omitted] •We introduced a method that incorporated BCWQI with machine learning models.•Our method can be used for real-time estimation of BCWQI in aquatic ecosystems.•LSTM outperformed other models in real-time estimation of the BCWQI.•LSTM-BCWQI assesses lakes with a limited data in a more economic and time-saving way.•LSTM-BCWQI improves policymakers to take timely action to protect aquatic ecosystems.