Exploring phase-out path of China's coal power plants with its dynamic impact on electricity balance

The carbon neutrality goal is driving China to phase out its coal plants. However, the phase-out policies under extreme weather condition has led to severe electricity shortage. A reconsideration of coal power phase-out path is necessary to balance the demand of carbon neutrality, electricity security, and economic growth, including appropriate pace and direction. In order to explore the dynamic and non-linear impact on electricity balance, a hybrid model of system dynamics (SD) and Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) called SD-LEAP is proposed in this paper. The scenario simulation results shows the following implications: (1) Under the benchmark development (BD) scenario, electricity shortages may still exist before 2027 if China phases out coal plants at their 30-years technical lifespan. The estimated monthly electricity deficit may range from 6 to 12 billion kWh. (2) To reduce the electricity shortage risk, China should increase the electricity efficiency to decrease its electricity consumption per GDP by at least 5% compared to benchmark standard when adopting accelerated phase-out (APO) path. (3) Flexible phase-out (FPO) path can significantly reduce the electricity shortage risk. Its cumulative carbon emissions from 2020 to 2050 will reach 70.4 billion tons which is 4.3% lower than that of the APO path. •We develop a hybrid approach to simulate various scenarios of electricity system.•The diversity of both demand and coal power phase-out pathways is considered.•Electricity shortage will occur before 2028 if coal power is phased out as usual.•Flexible phase-out path reduces the electricity shortage risk with lower emission.•Accelerating phase-out path should cooperate with higher electricity efficiency.