Computational and experimental assessment of health risks of fine particulate matter in Nanjing and Yangzhou, China

Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is a major air pollutant in most cities of China, and poses great health risks to local residents. In this study, the health effects of PM 2.5 in Nanjing and Yangzhou were compared using computational and experimental methods. The global exposure mortality model (GEMM), including the results of a cohort study in China, was used to estimate the disease-related risks. Premature mortality attributable to PM 2.5 exposure were markedly higher in Nanjing than that in Yangzhou at comparable levels of PM 2.5 (8191 95% CI, 6975–9994 vs. 6548 95% CI, 5599–8049 in 2015). However, the baseline mortality rate was on a country-level and the age distribution was on a province-level, traditional estimation method could not accurately represent the health burdens of PM 2.5 on a city-level. We proposed a refined calculation method which based on the actual deaths of each city and the disease death rates. Conversely, similar concentrations of PM 2.5 exposure resulted in higher actual deaths per million population in Yangzhou (1466 95% CI, 1266–1746) than that in Nanjing (1271 95% CI, 1098–1514). Health risks of PM 2.5 are associated with the generation of reactive oxygen species, among which hydroxyl radial (·OH) is the most reactive one. We then collected these PM 2.5 samples and quantified the induced ·OH. Consistently, average ·OH concentration in 2015 was higher in Yangzhou than that in Nanjing, again indicating that PM 2.5 in Yangzhou was more toxic. The combination of computational and experimental methods demonstrated the complex relationship between health risks and PM 2.5 concentrations. The refined estimation method could help us better estimate and interpret the risks caused by PM 2.5 exposure on a city-level.