Land use scenarios for the development of a carbon-neutral energy supply – A case study from Southern Germany

The Paris Agreement determined to limit global warming to below two degrees. National governments are now confronted with the challenge of taking action for climate protection. For Germany, this poses a major challenge, as the imminent phaseout of low-emission nuclear energy additionally increases the pressure to quickly advance the deployment of renewable energies. At the same time, their low energy density and the resulting high land requirements lead to severe conflicts in land use. The situation is aggravated by the fact that the diversity of societal actors leads to a diversity of energy strategies, which differ in terms of impacts on land use. We therefore want to analyse the impending restructuration of energy supply and the associated land use conflicts. We model potential scenarios of energy landscapes that can be derived from the two-degree target on the basis of Geographic Information Systems, by modifying the political guidelines and planning laws for the deployment of renewable energies. The analyses show that carbon-neutrality is attainable in principle. However, the spatial patterns of renewable energies differ considerably depending on the given legal framework. It also comes to show that land use policy must take greater account of the perspectives of those social groups that are confronted with the installation of renewable energies in the immediate vicinity of their own living environment. [Display omitted] •The energy transition leads to considerable changes in land use patterns.•The study revealed that it is possible to realize a carbon-neutral regional energy system by 2050.•The existing legal framework for nature conservation offers sufficient spatial options for the energy transition.•The weighting of site factors must consider current power structures.•A low-conflict regional climate protection strategy should be based on public participation.