Predicting and analyzing the algal population dynamics of a grass-type lake with explainable machine learning
Algal blooms, exacerbated by climate change and eutrophication, have emerged as a global concern. In this study, we introduce a novel interpretable machine learning (ML) workflow tailored for investigating the dynamics of algal populations in grass-type lakes, Liangzi lake. Utilizing seven ML method...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of environmental management 2024-03, Vol.354, p.120394-120394, Article 120394 |
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Sprache: | eng |
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Zusammenfassung: | Algal blooms, exacerbated by climate change and eutrophication, have emerged as a global concern. In this study, we introduce a novel interpretable machine learning (ML) workflow tailored for investigating the dynamics of algal populations in grass-type lakes, Liangzi lake. Utilizing seven ML methods and incorporating the covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy (CMA-ES), we predict algal density across three distinct time periods, resulting in the construction of a total of 30 ML models. The CMA-ES-CatBoost model consistently demonstrates superior predictive accuracy and generalization capability across these periods. Through the collective validation of various interpretable tools, we identify water temperature and permanganate index as the two most critical water quality parameters (WQIs) influencing algal density in Liangzi Lake. Additionally, we quantify the independent and interactive effects of WQIs on algal density, pinpointing key thresholds and trends. Furthermore, we determine the minimum combination of WQIs that achieves near-optimal predictive performance, striking a balance between accuracy and cost-effectiveness. These findings offer a scientific and economically efficient foundation for governmental agencies to formulate strategies for water quality management and sustainable development.
•Dynamics of algal population are analyzed by interpretable machine-learning workflow.•CatBoost provides the best performance for algal density prediction.•With feature ranking, prediction accuracy remains stable after removing half feature.•Impacts and critical thresholds of water parameters on algal density are assessed.•Algal density is affected by water temperature and permanganate index most. |
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ISSN: | 0301-4797 1095-8630 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120394 |