One catastrophic flood every millennium: Synchronicity of extreme floods and global warm periods in the multi-archive record of the Roman theatre of Guadix (Granada, SE Spain)

Past global changes are typically registered in both natural (e.g., geologic-geomorphological, atmospheric-climatic, hydrologic-glacial and biological) and cultural records (e.g., archaeological, historical and documentary sources). Nevertheless, there are few sites in the world where sedimentary and archaeological evidence combine to provide information about two or more past millennial climate changes. In this regard, the Roman city of Guadix (Granada, SE Spain) represents a singular location, whose Roman theatre (1st century CE), recently discovered in 2007, contains palaeo-flood evidences that can be related to the two latest global warm periods: the Roman and Medieval epochs. In this research, detailed geological analyses are carried out. These analyses consisted in careful descriptions of vertical stratigraphic sections (lithology, structures…) and lateral correlation panels; as well as fluvial facies models to interpret the sedimentary environments for each sequence. This sedimentological information was combined with the study of archaeological remains, radiocarbon dating and optically stimulated luminescence, and three major flood events have been identified: two of them dating back to the beginning of the 1st century CE (period of the Pax Romana Empire); and the other occurring at the end of the 12th century (Islamic Almohad period). Such extreme hydrological events were synchronous with two warm periods: the Roman Climatic Optimum and the Medieval Warm Period. This seems to suggest that the meteorological fluctuations associated to climate changes during warming periods (such as the current one associated with present-day climate change) very likely produce such extraordinary or extreme events, which can mobilise large amounts of solid load (sands, silts and clays) and trigger sudden changes in the configuration of the river system (channel avulsions, meander cut-offs and captures among tributaries) and alluvial fans (at tributary mouths). We believe that the documented observations provide an analogy for the current warming period. In this regard, flood risk management in the current city of Guadix, whose hazard and risk maps were drawn up according to the criteria of the European Flood Directive, should take into account: (i) the millennial recurrent character of catastrophic floods in Guadix, well above the 500-year return period officially considered; (ii) the importance of the mobilisation of solid load in flood hazard and risk, which can o