Effects of climate change on aquaculture site selection at a temperate estuarine system

Aquaculture is one of the food industries that most evolved in recent years in response to increased human demand for seafood products, which has led to a progressive stock threat in nature. With a high seafood consumption per capita, Portugal has been exploring its coastal systems to improve the cultivation of fish and bivalve species with high commercial value. In this context, this study aims to propose the use of a numerical model as a tool to assess the impact of climate change on aquaculture site selection in a temperate estuarine system (Sado estuary). Therefore, the Delft3D model was calibrated and validated, showing good accuracy in predicting the local hydrodynamics, transport, and water quality. Furthermore, two simulations for the historical and future conditions were performed to establish a Suitability Index capable of identifying the most appropriate sites to exploit two bivalve species (one clam and one oyster), considering both winter and summer seasons. Results suggest that the estuary's northernmost region presents the best conditions for bivalves' exploitation, with more suitable conditions during summer than winter due to the higher water temperature and chlorophyll-a concentrations. Regarding future projections, the model results suggest that environmental conditions will likely benefit the production of both species due to the increase in chlorophyll-a concentration along the estuary. [Display omitted] •Definition of five suitability classes for aquaculture exploitation.•Best locations for aquaculture infrastructures located in the northern region of the estuary.•Improvement in the suitability of both species production is predicted for the future.•This work can be replicated in other estuarine systems supporting the implementation of new facilities in suitable locations.