Income, coal consumption, and the environmental Kuznets curve in Vietnam

Concerns over adverse environmental effects have been raised due to Vietnam’s reliance on fossil fuels like coal. At the same time, efforts are being made to boost the usage of renewable energy while simultaneously lowering greenhouse gas emissions. This study examines whether there is an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and coal consumption in Vietnam by controlling for renewable energy consumption and oil prices from 1984 to 2021. We adopt the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework to explore a long-run level relationship between the study variables. We find that the GDP elasticity of coal demand has been greater than one since the 1990s and about 3.5 in recent years, indicating that the coal intensity of GDP has increased with economic growth. Thus, the GDP-coal consumption relationship resembles an upward-sloping curve instead of an inverted U-shaped EKC. This relationship is robust when we use other estimation methods and account for two additional independent variables. While a 1% rise in renewable energy consumption results in a 0.4% reduction in coal consumption, the impact of oil prices on coal consumption is negative but insignificant. The findings allow us to provide policy implications for the sustainable development of Vietnam: (1) more stringent policies, for example, enacting a carbon pricing scheme, are needed to reduce coal consumption; (2) policies should be implemented to make renewable energy sources more affordable; and (3) as facing high oil prices, the country should diversify its energy mix by expanding the usage of renewable energy.