Projections of urban land exposure to drought and flood in China

With global warming, the risk of human exposure to extreme climates increases, profoundly impacting sustainable development. Using rapidly developing China as an example, this study estimates the exposure of urban land to drought and flood based on historical and future climate and land data. The results show that the area of urban land exposed to drought in China generally decreases in the future. However, the area exposed to flood sharply increases in the mid- and long-term future, except for the near future. There is heterogeneity in the changes in urban land exposure under different levels of drought and flood. The changes in exposure areas under different future scenarios show spatial differences and an overall trend of spatial aggregation. Climate factors are the main drivers of changes in the area exposed to drought and flood. The findings can provide important references for policy-making and urban land management in response to extreme climate change.