The value of information in predicting harmful algal blooms

Environmental decision-making is inherently subject to uncertainty. However, decisions are often urgent, and whether to take direct action or invest in collecting additional data beforehand is pervasive. To make this trade-off explicit, the value of information (VoI) theory offers a powerful decision analytic tool to quantify the expected benefit of resolving uncertainty in a decision context. Although it is mainly used in economic contexts, it can be applied to biodiversity conservation and management. In our approach, we evaluate the expected surplus in resolving uncertainty about the occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the German North Sea coastal waters and the effect on decision-making. We use an established dynamic foodweb model (NPPZ) with two competing phytoplankton consortia (harmful, non-harmful) and regional monitoring data to analyse the prediction accuracy of different indicators. Our analysis revealed a prediction accuracy of a HAB occurrence of 0.65 % if additional information on zooplankton is included. We then evaluate the effect of reducing uncertainty about these indicators (e.g., through extended monitoring) on management decisions employing a VoI analysis. We find that additional information may lead to an expected welfare gain of up to 2.67 million Euro in our decision context. Our results highlight the significant potential for VoI analysis to enhance decision-making in fishery and ecosystem management and provide insights for future monitoring strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of HABs. This approach contributes valuable methodological insights for optimising management strategies and further emphasises the importance of considering uncertainty in decision-making processes. •VoI analysis evaluates the economic benefits of predicting HABs.•We use simulated time series and a probit model to derive conditional probabilities•Our results show an added value of extended monitoring at a specific seasonal period.•Information accuracy has a significant influence on VoI.•VoI analysis can enable decision-makers to make proactive management strategies.