Development and validation of a predictive risk tool for VTE in women with breast cancer under chemotherapy: a cohort study in China

Objective The incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is significantly elevated in breast cancer patients, with a three-to-fourfold increase, and further escalates to sixfold in those undergoing chemotherapy. This study aims to identify the risk factors for VTE and develop a Nomogram risk prediction model distinct from the traditional Khorana score. Methods Univariate Cox regression analysis assessed the impact of each variable on the occurrence of VTE, while stepwise multivariate Cox regression analysis identified independent predictors. Based on these results, we constructed a Nomogram model. The model’s performance was validated using the C-index, receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Comparisons were made with the Khorana score to evaluate the practical application value. Results Out of the 903 patients, 108 (11.96%) developed VTE. Cox regression analysis identified that Stage, undergoing surgery, age, white blood cells (WBC), D-dimer, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) were significant risk factors for VTE ( P