Identifying an optimal cancer risk threshold for resection of pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms

IPMN consensus guidelines make implicit judgments on what cancer risk level should prompt surgery. We used decision modeling to estimate this cancer risk threshold (CRT) for BD-IPMN patients. We created a decision model to compare quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) following surgery or surveillance for BD-IPMNs. We simulated treatment decisions for hypothetical patients, varying age, comorbidities and lesion location (pancreatic head/tail). The base case was a 60-year-old patient with mild comorbidities and pancreatic head IPMN. Probabilities, life expectancies, and utilities were incorporated from literature/public datasets. CRT was defined as the level of cancer risk at which the expected value of QALYs for surgery first exceeded that of surveillance. In the base case, surgery was preferred over surveillance, yielding 21.90 vs. 21.88 QALYs. The optimal CRT for a BD-IPMN patient depended on age, comorbidities, and location. CRT in the base case was 20 % and 3 % for an IPMN in the head and tail of the pancreas, respectively. Other drivers of preferred treatment were age and likelihood of postoperative mortality. For BD-IPMNs, the optimal CRT varies depending on patient age and risk of surgical complications. Personalized risk threshold values could guide treatment decisions and inform future treatment consensus guidelines.