Follow-up on patients with initial negative mpMRI target and systematic biopsy for PI-RADS ≥ 3 lesions - an EAU-YAU study enhancing prostate cancer detection

To investigate the detection and predictors of prostate cancer (PCA) and clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCA) in patients with positive multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) followed by a negative MRI - guided target biopsy (TB) and systematic biopsy (SB). This retrospective multicenter study included 694 patients from 10 tertiary referral centers with an initial positive mpMRI (PI-RADS ≥ 3) and negative results on both MRI-TB and SB. Patients were classified into three groups based on follow-up: Group 1 (prostate re-biopsy without new mpMRI), Group 2 (standardized second prostate mpMRI and subsequent re-biopsy), and Group 3 (follow-up with mpMRIs and biopsy based on clinical and radiological triggers). The primary outcomes were the detection of any PCA and csPCA during follow up. Study groups were compared according to their probability of PCA and csPCA assessed with the ERSPC-MRI risk calculator. Statistical analysis included Kaplan - Meier analysis, Cox regression, and multivariable analysis for the detection of (cs)PCa. The overall detection of PCA and csPCA was 26.8% and 19.3%, respectively, with varying rates in different PI-RADS groups. Group 3 had the highest 2-year and 5-year PCA-free survival (94 and 84%) and csPCA - free survival (96 and 86%). Multivariable analysis revealed a significantly higher risk of PCA and csPCA in Group 1 and 2 compared to Group 3 (p