New insights into the prediction for the potential of soil organic carbon accumulation: From the perspective of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics

The accumulation of soil organic carbon (SOC) is significant for soil health and ecosystem services. Numerous studies have assessed the dynamic changes of SOC by considering the microbial system as an equilibrium system. However, they failed to reveal the complexity of the SOC accumulation/loss process, as the microbial system is a non-equilibrium system affected by stochastic fluctuations from the external environment. This study is the first to explore the complex non-equilibrium relationship between microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) and SOC by using potential landscape and flux in non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. Nitrogen (N) was identified as the most critical environmental factor influencing CUE on a global scale, with the transition between the carbon loss state and the carbon sequestration state observed along N gradients. Random perturbations of other environmental factors could also trigger transition. Non-equilibrium thermodynamic quantities indicated that carbon sequestration had the potential to be achieved when N = 0.5 g/kg, where active soil management measures should be taken. Furthermore, the non-equilibrium relationship between CUE and SOC was clarified through potential energy analysis, where the average deviation between predictions and actual observations of SOC is about 1.9792 g/kg. This study provides an effective framework for predicting SOC accumulation. •Non-equilibrium was considered to explore the relationship between CUE and SOC.•Nitrogen was identified as the most critical environmental factor influencing CUE.•Carbon loss and sequestration state transitions along nitrogen gradients.•Stochastic fluctuations from external environment could lead to state transitions.•Carbon sequestration had the potential to be achieved at 0.5 g/kg of nitrogen.