Modelling the epidemiological impact of maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccination in Australia
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory illness among infants. A maternal RSV vaccine that protects young infants has recently been approved for registration in Australia. We estimated the population benefits of a future year-round maternal RSV vaccination program in term...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Vaccine 2024-12, Vol.42 (26), p.126418, Article 126418 |
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| creator | Nazareno, Allen L. Newall, Anthony T. Muscatello, David J. Hogan, Alexandra B. Wood, James G. |
| description | Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory illness among infants. A maternal RSV vaccine that protects young infants has recently been approved for registration in Australia. We estimated the population benefits of a future year-round maternal RSV vaccination program in terms of prevented RSV infections and hospitalisations in Australia.
We described RSV transmission using an age-structured compartmental model calibrated to Australian aggregated monthly RSV-coded hospitalisations in children aged |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.126418 |
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We described RSV transmission using an age-structured compartmental model calibrated to Australian aggregated monthly RSV-coded hospitalisations in children aged <5 years. We accounted for mother and infant interactions in the model to capture herd effects more realistically. Using the model, we estimated the annual age-specific RSV infections and hospitalisations prevented for a range of assumptions for vaccine efficacy, coverage, and durability to estimate the future impact of year-round maternal RSV vaccination on infants and the wider population.
Assuming base case vaccine efficacy, 6 months duration of protection and 70% coverage, RSV hospitalisations were predicted to fall by 60% (from 3.0 to 1.2 per 100 persons) in infants aged <3 months and 40% (from 1.9 to 1.1 per 100 persons) in 3–5-month-olds. These benefits were primarily due to direct protection to infants of vaccinated mothers. This vaccine program was predicted to reduce the population-level RSV infection by about 4%. Coverage and duration assumptions were influential, with higher coverage leading to larger declines in infants <6 months, and increased duration of protection leading to additional declines in infection and hospitalisation risk in older infants aged 6–8 months.
With vaccine uptake similar to that achieved for other maternal vaccines in Australia, a year-round RSV maternal vaccination program is predicted to approximately halve the number of RSV hospitalisations in infants younger than 6 months. There was a small herd effect predicted in the base case but potential for larger benefits if vaccine coverage or the duration of protection exceeds base case assumptions.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0264-410X</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1873-2518</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1873-2518</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.126418</identifier><identifier>PMID: 39423452</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Netherlands: Elsevier Ltd</publisher><subject>Adult ; Age ; Age groups ; Antibodies ; Australia ; Australia - epidemiology ; Babies ; Calibration ; Child, Preschool ; Disease prevention ; durability ; Effectiveness ; Epidemiology ; Female ; herds ; Hospitalization ; Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data ; Households ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Infants ; Infections ; Male ; Maternal vaccination ; Mathematical modelling ; Mother-offspring interactions ; Mothers ; Older people ; Population decline ; Pregnancy ; Respiratory syncytial virus ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - epidemiology ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - prevention & control ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines - administration & dosage ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines - immunology ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human - immunology ; respiratory tract diseases ; risk ; RSV ; Transmission ; vaccination ; Vaccination - statistics & numerical data ; Vaccine Efficacy ; Vaccines ; Womens health</subject><ispartof>Vaccine, 2024-12, Vol.42 (26), p.126418, Article 126418</ispartof><rights>2024 The Authors</rights><rights>Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.</rights><rights>2024. The Authors</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c304t-90d9d7ffb70d63f6cb95dfab9d04ff4430a3af78f8fa70cbf092e39b9edc79063</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.126418$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,777,781,3537,27905,27906,45976</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/39423452$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Nazareno, Allen L.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Newall, Anthony T.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Muscatello, David J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hogan, Alexandra B.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wood, James G.</creatorcontrib><title>Modelling the epidemiological impact of maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccination in Australia</title><title>Vaccine</title><addtitle>Vaccine</addtitle><description>Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory illness among infants. A maternal RSV vaccine that protects young infants has recently been approved for registration in Australia. We estimated the population benefits of a future year-round maternal RSV vaccination program in terms of prevented RSV infections and hospitalisations in Australia.
We described RSV transmission using an age-structured compartmental model calibrated to Australian aggregated monthly RSV-coded hospitalisations in children aged <5 years. We accounted for mother and infant interactions in the model to capture herd effects more realistically. Using the model, we estimated the annual age-specific RSV infections and hospitalisations prevented for a range of assumptions for vaccine efficacy, coverage, and durability to estimate the future impact of year-round maternal RSV vaccination on infants and the wider population.
Assuming base case vaccine efficacy, 6 months duration of protection and 70% coverage, RSV hospitalisations were predicted to fall by 60% (from 3.0 to 1.2 per 100 persons) in infants aged <3 months and 40% (from 1.9 to 1.1 per 100 persons) in 3–5-month-olds. These benefits were primarily due to direct protection to infants of vaccinated mothers. This vaccine program was predicted to reduce the population-level RSV infection by about 4%. Coverage and duration assumptions were influential, with higher coverage leading to larger declines in infants <6 months, and increased duration of protection leading to additional declines in infection and hospitalisation risk in older infants aged 6–8 months.
With vaccine uptake similar to that achieved for other maternal vaccines in Australia, a year-round RSV maternal vaccination program is predicted to approximately halve the number of RSV hospitalisations in infants younger than 6 months. There was a small herd effect predicted in the base case but potential for larger benefits if vaccine coverage or the duration of protection exceeds base case assumptions.</description><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Age</subject><subject>Age groups</subject><subject>Antibodies</subject><subject>Australia</subject><subject>Australia - epidemiology</subject><subject>Babies</subject><subject>Calibration</subject><subject>Child, Preschool</subject><subject>Disease prevention</subject><subject>durability</subject><subject>Effectiveness</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>herds</subject><subject>Hospitalization</subject><subject>Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Households</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Infant</subject><subject>Infant, Newborn</subject><subject>Infants</subject><subject>Infections</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Maternal vaccination</subject><subject>Mathematical modelling</subject><subject>Mother-offspring interactions</subject><subject>Mothers</subject><subject>Older people</subject><subject>Population decline</subject><subject>Pregnancy</subject><subject>Respiratory syncytial virus</subject><subject>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - epidemiology</subject><subject>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - prevention & control</subject><subject>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines - administration & dosage</subject><subject>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines - immunology</subject><subject>Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human - immunology</subject><subject>respiratory tract diseases</subject><subject>risk</subject><subject>RSV</subject><subject>Transmission</subject><subject>vaccination</subject><subject>Vaccination - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Vaccine Efficacy</subject><subject>Vaccines</subject><subject>Womens health</subject><issn>0264-410X</issn><issn>1873-2518</issn><issn>1873-2518</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2024</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNqNkcuLFDEQh4Mo7rj6JygBL-uhx8qjHznJsuyqsCL4wltI57Fm7O70JumB-e_N0KMHL3oK_PiqUlUfQs8JbAmQ5vVuu1da-8luKVC-JbThpHuANqRrWUVr0j1EGyhhxQl8P0NPUtoBQM2IeIzOmOCU8Zpu0M8Pwdhh8NMdzj8strM3dvRhCHdeqwH7cVY64-DwqLKNU4miTbOPKod4wOkw6UP2Jd37uCR88enzt1d4HUxlHybsJ3y5pBzV4NVT9MipIdlnp_ccfb25_nL1rrr9-Pb91eVtpRnwXAkwwrTO9S2YhrlG96I2TvXCAHeOcwaKKdd2rnOqBd07ENQy0QtrdCugYefoYu07x3C_2JTl6JMuW6rJhiVJRmrWEQ5N9x8o6cpQgouCvvwL3YXleJEjxSmtKTRtoeqV0jGkFK2Tc_SjigdJQB7FyZ08iZNHcXIVV-penLov_WjNn6rfpgrwZgVsudze2yiT9nbS1vhodZYm-H988QsZta02</recordid><startdate>20241202</startdate><enddate>20241202</enddate><creator>Nazareno, Allen L.</creator><creator>Newall, Anthony T.</creator><creator>Muscatello, David J.</creator><creator>Hogan, Alexandra B.</creator><creator>Wood, James G.</creator><general>Elsevier Ltd</general><general>Elsevier Limited</general><scope>6I.</scope><scope>AAFTH</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7QL</scope><scope>7T2</scope><scope>7T5</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>7S9</scope><scope>L.6</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20241202</creationdate><title>Modelling the epidemiological impact of maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccination in Australia</title><author>Nazareno, Allen L. ; Newall, Anthony T. ; Muscatello, David J. ; Hogan, Alexandra B. ; Wood, James G.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c304t-90d9d7ffb70d63f6cb95dfab9d04ff4430a3af78f8fa70cbf092e39b9edc79063</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2024</creationdate><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Age</topic><topic>Age groups</topic><topic>Antibodies</topic><topic>Australia</topic><topic>Australia - epidemiology</topic><topic>Babies</topic><topic>Calibration</topic><topic>Child, Preschool</topic><topic>Disease prevention</topic><topic>durability</topic><topic>Effectiveness</topic><topic>Epidemiology</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>herds</topic><topic>Hospitalization</topic><topic>Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Households</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Infant</topic><topic>Infant, Newborn</topic><topic>Infants</topic><topic>Infections</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Maternal vaccination</topic><topic>Mathematical modelling</topic><topic>Mother-offspring interactions</topic><topic>Mothers</topic><topic>Older people</topic><topic>Population decline</topic><topic>Pregnancy</topic><topic>Respiratory syncytial virus</topic><topic>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - epidemiology</topic><topic>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - prevention & control</topic><topic>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines - administration & dosage</topic><topic>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines - immunology</topic><topic>Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human - immunology</topic><topic>respiratory tract diseases</topic><topic>risk</topic><topic>RSV</topic><topic>Transmission</topic><topic>vaccination</topic><topic>Vaccination - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Vaccine Efficacy</topic><topic>Vaccines</topic><topic>Womens health</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Nazareno, Allen L.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Newall, Anthony T.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Muscatello, David J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hogan, Alexandra B.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wood, James G.</creatorcontrib><collection>ScienceDirect Open Access Titles</collection><collection>Elsevier:ScienceDirect:Open Access</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)</collection><collection>Health and Safety Science Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Immunology Abstracts</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>AGRICOLA</collection><collection>AGRICOLA - Academic</collection><jtitle>Vaccine</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Nazareno, Allen L.</au><au>Newall, Anthony T.</au><au>Muscatello, David J.</au><au>Hogan, Alexandra B.</au><au>Wood, James G.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Modelling the epidemiological impact of maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccination in Australia</atitle><jtitle>Vaccine</jtitle><addtitle>Vaccine</addtitle><date>2024-12-02</date><risdate>2024</risdate><volume>42</volume><issue>26</issue><spage>126418</spage><pages>126418-</pages><artnum>126418</artnum><issn>0264-410X</issn><issn>1873-2518</issn><eissn>1873-2518</eissn><abstract>Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory illness among infants. A maternal RSV vaccine that protects young infants has recently been approved for registration in Australia. We estimated the population benefits of a future year-round maternal RSV vaccination program in terms of prevented RSV infections and hospitalisations in Australia.
We described RSV transmission using an age-structured compartmental model calibrated to Australian aggregated monthly RSV-coded hospitalisations in children aged <5 years. We accounted for mother and infant interactions in the model to capture herd effects more realistically. Using the model, we estimated the annual age-specific RSV infections and hospitalisations prevented for a range of assumptions for vaccine efficacy, coverage, and durability to estimate the future impact of year-round maternal RSV vaccination on infants and the wider population.
Assuming base case vaccine efficacy, 6 months duration of protection and 70% coverage, RSV hospitalisations were predicted to fall by 60% (from 3.0 to 1.2 per 100 persons) in infants aged <3 months and 40% (from 1.9 to 1.1 per 100 persons) in 3–5-month-olds. These benefits were primarily due to direct protection to infants of vaccinated mothers. This vaccine program was predicted to reduce the population-level RSV infection by about 4%. Coverage and duration assumptions were influential, with higher coverage leading to larger declines in infants <6 months, and increased duration of protection leading to additional declines in infection and hospitalisation risk in older infants aged 6–8 months.
With vaccine uptake similar to that achieved for other maternal vaccines in Australia, a year-round RSV maternal vaccination program is predicted to approximately halve the number of RSV hospitalisations in infants younger than 6 months. There was a small herd effect predicted in the base case but potential for larger benefits if vaccine coverage or the duration of protection exceeds base case assumptions.</abstract><cop>Netherlands</cop><pub>Elsevier Ltd</pub><pmid>39423452</pmid><doi>10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.126418</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Adult Age Age groups Antibodies Australia Australia - epidemiology Babies Calibration Child, Preschool Disease prevention durability Effectiveness Epidemiology Female herds Hospitalization Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data Households Humans Infant Infant, Newborn Infants Infections Male Maternal vaccination Mathematical modelling Mother-offspring interactions Mothers Older people Population decline Pregnancy Respiratory syncytial virus Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - epidemiology Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - prevention & control Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines - administration & dosage Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines - immunology Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human - immunology respiratory tract diseases risk RSV Transmission vaccination Vaccination - statistics & numerical data Vaccine Efficacy Vaccines Womens health |
| title | Modelling the epidemiological impact of maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccination in Australia |
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