Propagation pathways from meteorological to agricultural drought in different climatic basins in iran

The propagation of meteorological drought (MD) to agricultural drought (AD) is influenced by various factors, particularly the climate type. This research examined the characteristics of drought propagation, encompassing propagation rates, lag time, and response time, from MD to AD within the context of Iran's diverse climate conditions. This was accomplished using three crucial meteorological and agricultural drought indices, namely the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and Standardized Soil Moisture Index. The research data included in-situ and ERA5 datasets from 30 basins (catchments) across Iran in the 1979–2021 period. Based on reports from the Global Drought Observatory, the three most prominent MD events were identified in 1999–2002, 2008–2009, and 2017–2019. The correlation coefficients between MD and AD indices across various timescales, in climates ranging from hyper-arid to humid, exhibited a decline from 0.75 to 0.44. The response time, varying between 2.42 to 6.63 months, was determined by the strong correlation between SPI (or SPEI) and SSI1 (or SSI2) within the studied basins. Furthermore, the lag time, which was affected by the onset of MD and AD events, fluctuated between 2 to 6 months in hyper-arid and arid basins, revealing a 1–3 month variation compared to humid basins. The findings on propagation rates highlighted heightened sensitivity or response from meteorological to agricultural drought in humid climates, as opposed to hyper-arid climates. In light of these outcomes, comprehending the transition from MD to AD holds substantial significance for predicting, issuing early warnings, and fortifying preparedness in managing drought risks.