Uncertainty-aware probabilistic graph neural networks for road-level traffic crash prediction

Traffic crashes present substantial challenges to human safety and socio-economic development in urban areas. Developing a reliable and responsible traffic crash prediction model is crucial to address growing public safety concerns and improve the safety of urban mobility systems. Traditional methods face limitations at fine spatiotemporal scales due to the sporadic nature of high-risk crashes and the predominance of non-crash characteristics. Furthermore, while most current models show promising occurrence prediction, they overlook the uncertainties arising from the inherent nature of crashes, and then fail to adequately map the hierarchical ranking of crash risk values for more precise insights. To address these issues, we introduce the Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Tweedie Graph Neural Networks (STZITD-GNN), the first uncertainty-aware probabilistic graph deep learning model in road-level daily-basis traffic crash prediction for multi-steps. Our model combines the interpretability of the statistical Tweedie family with the predictive power of graph neural networks, excelling in predicting a comprehensive range of crash risks. The decoder employs a compound Tweedie model, handling the non-Gaussian distribution inherent in crash data, with a zero-inflated component for accurately identifying non-crash cases and low-risk roads. The model accurately predicts and differentiates between high-risk, low-risk, and no-risk scenarios, providing a holistic view of road safety that accounts for the full spectrum of probability and severity of crashes. Empirical tests using real-world traffic data from London, UK, demonstrate that the STZITD-GNN surpasses other baseline models across multiple benchmarks, including a reduction in regression error of up to 34.60% in point estimation metrics and an improvement of above 47% in interval-based uncertainty metrics. •Introduces a novel probabilistic graph deep learning model (STZITD-GNN) for road-level crash risk assessment.•Combines graph neural networks with a four-parameter statistical distribution to effectively handle zero-inflated traffic crash data.•Demonstrates superior performance in multi-step road-level crash prediction for both point estimation and uncertainty quantification.•Exhibits stable performance in multi-step predictions and provides insights on deep learning model uncertainties.