Assessment of 1-Hour Postload Plasma Glucose, the Metabolic Syndrome, and the Finish Diabetes Risk Score in the Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes

To compare the 1-hour postload glucose (1h-PG) value of an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) with the metabolic syndrome (MetS) and the Finish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) in patients with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). A cohort study was conducted in patients at a general hospital in Lima, Perú. An OGTT was performed in subjects with IFG who were followed-up for 7 years for T2DM development. The exposure variables were 1h-PG ≥ 155 mg/dL, MetS, and a FINDRISC ≥ 13 points, and the outcome was the presence of T2DM. The relative risk, confidence interval, and area under the curve (AUROC) were also estimated. Among 324 subjects with IFG, 218 completed the 7-year follow-up. The mean age was 56.2 ± 11.5 years, 64.0% were woman, and 63.8% were overweight/obese. Of these, 36.8% had 1h-PG ≥ 155 mg/dL and normal glucose tolerance, 66.8% had MetS, and 64.5% had FINDRISC ≥ 13 points. After 7 years, 21.1% of participants developed T2DM, with 68.8% of them who had 1h-PG ≥ 155 mg/dL (P < .001), 62.2% had MetS (P = .013), and 67.9% had FINDRISC ≥ 13 (P = .68). After adjusting by age, sex, and body mass index, the relative risk was 3.52 (1.64-7.54; 95% CI), 1.81 (0.96-3.38; 95% CI), and 1.17 (0.51-2.70; 95% CI) for each exposure variable, respectively. Also, the AUROC was 0.72 (0.60-0.83), 0.63 (0.51-0.75), and 0.51 (0.38-0.63) (P = .01), respectively. By performing an OGTT in patients with IFG, an 1h-PG ≥ 155 mg/dL value may be helpful to predict T2DM at 7 years better than the use of MetS or the FINDRISC.