Urban synergistic carbon emissions reduction research: A perspective on spatial complexity and link prediction

Reducing urban carbon emissions (UCEs) holds paramount importance for global sustainable development. However, the complexity of interactions among urban spatial units has impeded further research on UCEs. This study investigates synergistic emission reduction between cities by analyzing the spatial complexity within the UCEs network. The future potential for synergistic carbon emissions reduction is predicted by the link prediction algorithm. A case study conducted in the Pearl River Basin of China demonstrates that the UCEs network has a complex spatial structure, and the synergistic capacity of emission reduction among cities is enhanced. The core cities in the UCEs network, including Dongguan, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, have spillover effects that contribute to synergistic emission reduction. Community detection reveals that the common characteristics associated with UCEs become concentrated, thereby enhancing the synergy of joint efforts between cities. The link prediction algorithm indicates a high probability of strengthened carbon emission connections in the Pearl River Delta, alongside those between upstream cities, which shows potential in forecasting synergistic emission reductions. Our research framework offers a comprehensive analysis for synergistic emission reduction from the spatial complexity of UCEs network and link prediction. It acts as a worthwhile reference for developing differentiated policies on synergistic emission reduction. •Exploring urban CO2 reduction synergies by spatial complexity and link prediction.•Spatial complexity analysis reveals cities' enhanced synergy in emission reduction.•Core cities in carbon emissions network drive effective emission reduction synergy.•Community detection shows enhanced potential for synergistic emissions reduction.•Link prediction forecasts potential for urban synergistic emission reduction.