Toxicity prediction and risk assessment of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances for threatened and endangered fishes

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) are severely polluted in aquatic environments and can harm aquatic organisms. Due to the limitation of conducting toxicity experiments directly on threatened and endangered (T&E) species, their toxicity data is scarce, hindering accurate risk assessments. The development of computational toxicology makes it possible to assess the risk of pollutants to T&E fishes. This study innovatively combined machine learning models, including random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN), and XGBoost, and the QSAR-ICE model to predict chronic developmental toxicity data of PFASs to T&E fishes. Among these, the XGBoost model exhibited superior performance, with R2 of 0.95 and 0.81 for the training and testing sets, respectively. Internal and external validation further confirmed that the XGBoost model is robust and reliable. Subsequently, it was used to predict chronic developmental toxicity data for seven priority PFASs to T&E fishes in the Yangtze River. Acipenseridae fishes (e.g., Acipenser dabryanus and Acipenser sinensis) showed high sensitivity to PFASs, possibly due to their unique lifestyle and physiological characteristics. Based on these data, the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) of individual PFASs was calculated, and the risk for T&E fishes in the Yangtze River was assessed. The results indicated that the risk of PFASs to T&E fishes is low (3.85 × 10−9∼8.20 × 10−4), with perfluorohexanoic acid (PFHxA) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) as the high-risk pollutants. The risk in the middle and lower reaches of the river is higher than in the upper reaches. This study provides a new approach for obtaining chronic toxicity data and conducting risk assessments for T&E species, advancing the protection of T&E species worldwide. [Display omitted] •QSAR-ICE and machine learning were used to predict chronic toxicity for T&E fishes.•XGBoost fitted best for the chronic developmental toxicity of PFASs to T&E fishes.•Acipenseridae fishes are more sensitive to PFASs than other fishes.•Issued water quality criteria of PFOA and PFOS cannot protect T&E fish effectively.•Long-term developmental risk of PFASs to T&E fishes in the Yangtze River is low.