Spatial Dynamics of Chickenpox Outbreaks in Rapidly Developing Regions: Implications for Global Public Health

The occurrence of chickenpox in rapidly developing areas poses substantial seasonal risk to children. However, certain factors influencing local chickenpox outbreaks have not been studied. Here, we examined the relationship between spatial clustering, heterogeneity of chickenpox outbreaks, and socioeconomic factors in Southern China. We assessed chickenpox outbreak data from Southern China between 2006 and 2021, comprising both relatively fast-growing parts and slower sub-regions, and provides a representative sample of many developing regions. We analyzed the spatial clustering attributes associated with chickenpox outbreaks using Moran’s I and local indicators of spatial association and quantified their socioeconomic determinants using Geodetector q statistics. There were significant spatial heterogeneity in the risk of chickenpox outbreaks, with strong correlations between chickenpox risk and various factors, particularly demographics and living environment. Furthermore, interactive effects among specific are factors, such as population density and per capita residential building area, percentage of households with toilets, percentage of rental housing, exhibited q statistics of 0.28, 0.25, and 0.24, respectively. This study provides valuable insights into the spatial dynamics of chickenpox outbreaks in rapidly developing regions, revealing the socioeconomic factors affecting disease transmission. These implications extend the formulation of effective public health strategies and interventions to prevent and control chickenpox outbreaks in similar global contexts.