Uncovering Availability of the Secondary Iron Resources in China: Integrating Material Flow Analysis and Secondary Resources Reserve Assessment

As the largest iron and steel producer, China still cannot meet its demand of iron and steel only through domestic primary supply in the last few decades. Hence, secondary iron resources are increasingly significant in meeting China's iron supply and demand balance. However, the secondary iron resource availability in China and how it impacts the future supply demand balance were still insufficiently discussed. In this work, we developed a material flow analysis and secondary resources reserve assessment (MFA-SRRA) integrated model, assessed secondary iron resources availability, and conducted a supply demand analysis through nine scenarios for irons in China. The results showed that China's secondary iron reserves will increase from 8.9 Gt in 2021 to 14.04 to 19.01 Gt in 2050. With the increasing secondary iron supply, more than 60% of iron ore as a source of steelmaking can be replaced by 2050. Landfills, as a significant reserve of iron but always ignored, will accumulate 1.42-1.51 Gt secondary iron resources by 2050 and should be noticed to be mined and utilized in the future. Last, we suggest that promoting innovation in landfill mining technology and making sustainable material management policies are urgent to prevent these secondary iron resources from becoming real waste.