Polygenic hazard score predicts synaptic and axonal degeneration and cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease continuum

•PHS shows high diagnostic accuracy in distinguishing AD, MCI, and healthy controls.•PHS can predict cognitive decline and progression of MCI to AD.•PHS impacts the relationship between neurodegenerative biomarkers and cognitive decline. Growth associated protein-43 (GAP-43) and neurofilaments light (NFL) are biomarkers of synaptic and axonal injury, and are associated with cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease (AD) contiuum. We investigated whether Polygenic Hazard Score (PHS) is associated with specific biomarkers and cognitive measures, and if it can predict the relationship between GAP-43, NFL, and cognitive decline in AD. We enrolled 646 subjects: 93 with AD, 350 with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 203 cognitively normal controls. Variables included GAP-43, plasma NFL, and PHS. A PHS of 0.21 or higher was considered high risk while a PHS below this threshold was considered low risk. A subsample of 190 patients with MCI with four years of follow-up cognitive assessments were selected for longitudinal analysis . We assessed the association of the PHS with AD biomarkers and cognitive measures, as well as the predictive power of PHS on cognitive decline and the conversion of MCI to AD. PHS showed high diagnostic accuracy in distinguishing AD, MCI, and controls. At each follow-up point, high risk MCI patients showed higher level of cognitive impairment compared to the low risk group. GAP-43 correlated with all follow-up cognitive tests in high risk MCI patients which was not detected in low risk MCI patients. Moreover, high risk MCI patients progressed to dementia more rapidly compared to low risk patients. PHS can predict cognitive decline and impacts the relationship between neurodegenerative biomarkers and cognitive impairment in AD contiuum. Categorizing patients based on PHS can improve the prediction of cognitive outcomes and disease progression. [Display omitted]