Correlating Advanced Pharmacy Practice Experience Exam Scores and Pharmacist Licensure Status in a Single Program

Pharmacist licensure exam first-time pass rates have declined for several years. Predictors of licensure exam performance, including the Pharmacy College Admission Test, are no longer required, necessitating alternative strategies. Our aim is to assess the relationship between numerical scores on advanced pharmacy practice experience (APPE) exams and pharmacist licensure exams first-time pass rates. We conducted a single-center, retrospective, observational analysis. APPE examination results between May 2020 and November 2023 were analyzed for association with licensure information from the Texas State Board of Pharmacy. Exam scores were collected for student cohorts graduating from 2021 to 2022 as study cohort data. Correlation between exam scores and probability of successful licensure was assessed using logistic regression. A classification and regression tree analysis identified the most significant threshold. Predictive ability of the best-fit model was prospectively validated using the 2023 graduate cohort. The overall licensure success rate was 80.6% for the study cohort (2021–2022, n = 206). Exam scores were well correlated to the likelihood of licensing success. The most significant threshold was 77.8%. The success rate was 82.5% vs 16.7% for those scoring above and below the threshold, respectively. The observed and predicted licensure success rates were 91.0% and 88.8%, respectively, in the validation cohort (2023, n = 89). The positive and negative prediction values were 94.9% and 40.0%, respectively. The performances on APPE exams were reasonable in predicting the first-time licensure success rate for a graduating class. Our assessment appears promising as a risk-stratification tool for students in gaining successful pharmacist licensure.