Modified Rankin Scale disability status at day 4 poststroke is an informative predictor of long-term day 90 outcome

Long-term disability after stroke is standardly assessed 3 months post-onset, using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). The value of an early, day 4 mRS assessment for projecting the 3-month disability outcome has not been formally investigated. In this cohort of patients with acute cerebral ischemia and intracranial hemorrhage, we analyzed day 4 and day 90 mRS assessments in the NIH Field Administration of Stroke Therapy– Magnesium (FAST-MAG) Phase 3 trial. The performance of day 4 mRS, alone and as part of multivariate models, in predicting day 90 mRS was assessed using correlation coefficients, percent agreement, and the kappa statistics. Among the 1573 acute cerebrovascular disease (ACVD) patients, 1206 (76.7%) had acute cerebral ischemia (ACI), while 367 (23.3%) had intracranial hemorrhage. Among all 1573 ACVD patients, day 4 mRS and day 90 mRS correlated strongly, Spearman's rho=0.79, in unadjusted analysis with weighted kappa of 0.59. For dichotomized outcomes, simple carry-forward of the day 4 mRS performed fairly well in agreeing with day 90 mRS: mRS 0-1 (kappa=0.67), 85.4%; mRS 0-2 (k=0.59), 79.5%; fatal outcome, 88% (k=0.33). Correlations of 4d and 90d mRS were stronger for ACI than ICH patients, 0.76 vs 0.71. In this acute cerebrovascular disease patient cohort, assessment of global disability performed on day 4 is highly informative regarding long-term, 3-month mRS disability outcome, alone, and even more strongly in combination with baseline prognostic variables. The day 4 mRS is a useful measure for imputing the final patient disability outcome in clinical trials and quality improvement programs.