Multi-level decisions for addressing trade-off in the cross-regional water-environment-agriculture interactive system under constraint of water ecological carrying capacity

The complex-enhanced hierarchical relationship among multiple stakeholders in the water-environment-agriculture interactive system has been overlooked. This study develops a leader-follower-enhanced framework (named as FCMLP) that integrates variable-weight combination prediction model, multi-level programming, and fuzzy credibility constrained programming, which can effectively address the above problems under uncertainties. Five water ecological carrying capacity (WECC) statuses are treated as a critical constraint into the modeling framework to improve the accuracy of decision-making. An interactive fuzzy satisfaction algorithm is advanced for solving this multi-level problem, in which COD discharge minimization, economic benefits maximization, and grain yield maximization are taken as the upper-, middle-, and lower-level goals, respectively. The framework is applied to plan the cross-regional water-environment-agriculture interactive system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Economic Belt. Solutions reveal that increased WECC status and credibility level would decrease 1.40%–1.74%, 0.71%–9.61%, and 1.63%–2.26% of water resources allocation, COD emissions, and economic benefits, respectively. Crop area and grain yield would dramatically decline by 4.13%–4.46% and 4.03%–4.67% when a credibility level increases from 0.8 to 1, respectively. The overall satisfactory degree would range from 0.58 to 0.70, which illustrates interactive decision-making process of multiple stakeholders. Significant differences can be observed in the optimized schemes of water resources allocation and environmental-economic-agricultural performances among various models. The amounts of allocated water resources, pollutant discharge, and economic output from the FCMLP model would be respectively 11.30%–13.45%, 14.90%–15.21%, and 73.12%–73.48% higher than those from the environment- and agriculture-oriented schemes, yet 13.81%, 32.05%, and 15.29% lower than those from the economy-oriented scheme. Some water adaptability countermeasures are given for ensuring the scientific operation of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project and alleviating conflicts between water source and receiving areas. Further exploration of the optimization scheme of water-environment-energy-agriculture system driven by climate change is still required for guaranteeing the dynamic balance of regional resources. [Display omitted] •A multi-level optimization framework is developed to plan the cro