Role of Exercise Hemodynamics in the Prediction of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension in BMPR2 Mutation Carriers

Exercise hemodynamics are recommended for early detection of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and have been suggested to be predictive of future development of PAH in high-risk populations such as BMPR2 mutation carriers. However, the optimal exercise hemodynamic screening parameter remains to be determined. Recent data suggest that pulmonary vascular distensibility (α) may serve as a useful parameter for early detection of PAH. What is the value of exercise hemodynamics, including α, for predicting the occurrence of PAH during long-term follow-up in BMPR2 mutation carriers? Fifty-two asymptomatic BMPR2 mutation carriers who underwent symptom-limited exercise hemodynamic assessment were followed up for a median of 10 years. The impact of hemodynamics at rest and exercise, presence of exercise pulmonary hypertension, and α on occurrence of PAH during long-term follow-up were assessed. During long-term follow-up, five patients developed PAH. Patients who developed PAH showed a significantly lower α (0.8 ± 0.4%/mm Hg) than patients without PAH (1.8 ± 0.8%/mm Hg; P = .008). The only hemodynamic parameter that predicted the occurrence of PAH during long-term follow-up at regression analysis was α. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that α ≤ 1.5%/mm Hg predicted PAH occurrence with a specificity of 75% and sensitivity of 100%. The results of this study indicate that before development of PAH in BMPR2 mutation carriers, α is reduced markedly and may serve as a useful parameter in the setting of early disease detection. Given the low event rate, caution is warranted in interpreting these results, highlighting the need for validation studies.