Pulmonary adenocarcinoma of low malignant potential defines indolent NSCLC associated with overdiagnosis in the national lung screening trial

The national lung screening trial (NLST) demonstrated a reduction in lung cancer mortality with lowdose CT (LDCT) compared to chest x-ray (CXR) screening. Overdiagnosis was high (79%) among bronchoalveolar carcinoma (BAC) currently replaced by adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS), minimally invasive adenocarcinoma (MIA) and adenocarcinoma of low malignant potential (LMP) exhibiting 100% disease specific survival (DSS). Compare the outcomes and proportions of BAC, AIS, MIA, and LMP among NLST screendetected stage IA NSCLC with overdiagnosis rate. Whole slide images were reviewed by a thoracic pathologist from 174 of 409 NLST screen-detected stage IA LUAD. Overdiagnosis rates were calculated from follow-up cancer incidence rates. Most BAC were reclassified as AIS/MIA/LMP (20/35 = 57%). The 7-year DSS was 100% for AIS/MIA/LMP and 94% for BAC. Excluding AIS/MIA/LMP, BAC behaved similarly to NSCLC (7-year DSS: 86% vs. 83%, p= 0.85) The overdiagnosis rate of LDCT stage IA NSCLC was 16.6% at 11.3-years, matching the proportion of AIS/MIA/LMP (16.2%) but not AIS/MIA (3.5%) or BAC (22.8%). AIS/MIA/LMP proportionally matches the overdiagnosis rate among stage IA NSCLC in the NLST, exhibiting 100% 7-year DSS. Biomarkers designed to recognize AIS/MIA/LMP preoperatively, would be useful to prevent overtreatment of indolent screen-detected cancers.