HERMES-24 Score Derivation and Validation for Simple and Robust Outcome Prediction After Large Vessel Occlusion Treatment

Clinicians need simple and highly predictive prognostic scores to assist practical decision-making. We aimed to develop a simple outcome prediction score applied 24 hours after anterior circulation acute ischemic stroke treatment with endovascular thrombectomy and validate it in patients treated both with and without endovascular thrombectomy. Using the HERMES (Highly Effective Reperfusion Evaluated in Multiple Endovascular Stroke Trials) collaboration data set (n=1764), patients in the endovascular thrombectomy arm were divided randomly into a derivation cohort (n=430) and a validation cohort (n=441). From a set of candidate predictors, logistic regression modeling using forward variable selection was used to select a model that was both parsimonious and highly predictive for modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≤2 at 90 days. The score was validated in validation cohort, control arm (n=893), and external validation cohorts from the ESCAPE-NA1 (Efficacy and Safety of Nerinetide for the Treatment of Acute Ischaemic Stroke; n=1066) and INTERRSeCT (Identifying New Approaches to Optimize Thrombus Characterization for Predicting Early Recanalization and Reperfusion With IV Alteplase and Other Treatments Using Serial CT Angiography; n=614). In the derivation cohort, we selected 2 significant predictors of mRS ≤2 (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at 24 hours and age [β-coefficient, 0.34 and 0.06]) and derived the HERMES-24 score: age (years)/10+National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at 24 hours. The HERMES-24 score was highly predictive for mRS ≤2 (c-statistic 0.907 [95% CI, 0.879-0.935]) in the derivation cohort. In the validation cohort and the control arm, the HERMES-24 score predicts mRS ≤2 (c-statistic, 0.914 [95% CI, 0.886-0.944] and 0.909 [95% CI, 0.887-0.930]). Observed provability of mRS ≤2 ranged between 3.1% and 3.4% when HERMES-24 score ≥25, while it ranged between 90.6% and 93.0% when HERMES-24 score