Combination of toxicological and epidemiological approaches for estimating the health impact of atmospheric pollutants. A proof of concept for NO2

Regular monitoring of the air pollutant nitrogen dioxide (NO2), an indicator for traffic-related emissions, is a priority in urban environments. The health impacts associated with NO2 exposure are the result of a combination of factors, including concentration, duration of exposure, and interactions with other pollutants. WHO has established air quality guidelines based on epidemiological studies. This study develops a new concept "Health Impact Pathways (HIPs)" using adversity as a probabilistic indicator of health effects. For this purpose, it integrates available toxicological and epidemiological information, using Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs), in order to understand chemical-biological interactions and their consequences on health. Literature review and meta-analysis of toxicological data supported by expert judgment were performed to establish: a) adversity pathways, b) quantitative criteria for scoring the observed toxicological effects (adversity indicators), c) NO2 exposure - adversity relationship for both long-term (1–36 months) and shortterm (1–7 days). The NO2 daily concentrations from January 2001 to December 2022, were obtained from Madrid city Air Quality network monitoring database. Adversity levels were compared with relative risk levels for all-cause and respiratory mortality estimated using linear equations from WHO 2021 guidelines. Non-linear relations were obtained for all long- and short-term NO2 related adversity indicators; for long-term effects, the best fitting was obtained with a modified Haber's law model with an exponential coefficient for the exposure time of 0.25. Estimations are presented for a set of case studies for Madrid city, covering temporal and spatial variability. A clear improvement trend along the two decades was observed, as well as high inter- and intra-station variability; the adversity indicators provided integrated information on the temporal and spatial evolution of population level risk. The proposed HIP conceptual approach offers promising advances for integrating experimental and epidemiological data. The next step is linking the concentration-adversity relationship with population health impacts through probability estimations, the preliminary estimations confirm the need for assessing independently different population groups. [Display omitted] •Extending AOP as Health Impact Pathways-HIP gives quantitative adversity estimates.•The HIP conceptual approach integrates experimental tox and epidemiologic