Diversity and selection analyses identify transmission-blocking antigens as the optimal vaccine candidates in Plasmodium falciparum

A highly effective vaccine for malaria remains an elusive target, at least in part due to the under-appreciated natural parasite variation. This study aimed to investigate genetic and structural variation, and immune selection of leading malaria vaccine candidates across the Plasmodium falciparum's life cycle. We analysed 325 P. falciparum whole genome sequences from Zambia, in addition to 791 genomes from five other African countries available in the MalariaGEN Pf3k Database. Ten vaccine antigens spanning three life-history stages were examined for genetic and structural variations, using population genetics measures, haplotype network analysis, and 3D structure selection analysis. Among the ten antigens analysed, only three in the transmission-blocking vaccine category display P. falciparum 3D7 as the dominant haplotype. The antigens AMA1, CSP, MSP119 and CelTOS, are much more diverse than the other antigens, and their epitope regions are under moderate to strong balancing selection. In contrast, Rh5, a blood stage antigen, displays low diversity yet slightly stronger immune selection in the merozoite-blocking epitope region. Except for CelTOS, the transmission-blocking antigens Pfs25, Pfs48/45, Pfs230, Pfs47, and Pfs28 exhibit minimal diversity and no immune selection in epitopes that induce strain-transcending antibodies, suggesting potential effectiveness of 3D7-based vaccines in blocking transmission. These findings offer valuable insights into the selection of optimal vaccine candidates against P. falciparum. Based on our results, we recommend prioritising conserved merozoite antigens and transmission-blocking antigens. Combining these antigens in multi-stage approaches may be particularly promising for malaria vaccine development initiatives. Purdue Department of Biological Sciences; Puskas Memorial Fellowship; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (U19AI089680).