Do Tasmanian devil declines impact ecosystem function?

Tasmanian eucalypt forests are among the most carbon‐dense in the world, but projected climate change could destabilize this critical carbon sink. While the impact of abiotic factors on forest ecosystem carbon dynamics have received considerable attention, biotic factors such as the input of animal scat are less understood. Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii)—an osteophageous scavenger that can ingest and solubilize nutrients locked in bone material—may subsidize plant and microbial productivity by concentrating bioavailable nutrients (e.g., nitrogen and phosphorus) in scat latrines. However, dramatic declines in devil population densities, driven by the spread of a transmissible cancer, may have underappreciated consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and forest productivity by altering nutrient cycling. Here, we fuse experimental data and modeling to quantify and predict future changes to forest productivity and SOC under various climate and scat‐quality futures. We find that devil scat significantly increases concentrations of nitrogen, ammonium, phosphorus, and phosphate in the soil and shifts soil microbial communities toward those dominated by r‐selected (e.g., fast‐growing) phyla. Further, under expected increases in temperature and changes in precipitation, devil scat inputs are projected to increase above‐ and below‐ground net primary productivity and microbial biomass carbon through 2100. In contrast, when devil scat is replaced by lower‐quality scat (e.g., from non‐osteophageous scavengers and herbivores), forest carbon pools are likely to increase more slowly, or in some cases, decline. Together, our results suggest often overlooked biotic factors will interact with climate change to drive current and future carbon pool dynamics in Tasmanian forests. Tasmanian devils are endangered scavengers that concentrate nutrients in their scat, potentially contributing to ecosystem functioning in ways that herbivorous species cannot. Here, we fuse experimental data and modeling approaches to predict changes to forest productivity and carbon dynamics under future scenarios including the extinction of Tasmanian devils and novel climate conditions. We find that under the most likely future climate scenarios, the long‐term sequestration of carbon in Tasmanian eucalypt forests could be imperiled without conservation strategies that protect Tasmanian devil populations.