Non-invasive prediction of massive transfusion during surgery using intraoperative hemodynamic monitoring data

[Display omitted] Failure to receive prompt blood transfusion leads to severe complications if massive bleeding occurs during surgery. For the timely preparation of blood products, predicting the possibility of massive transfusion (MT) is essential to decrease morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to develop a model for predicting MT 10 min in advance using non-invasive bio-signal waveforms that change in real-time. In this retrospective study, we developed a deep learning-based algorithm (DLA) to predict intraoperative MT within 10 min. MT was defined as the transfusion of 3 or more units of red blood cells within an hour. The datasets consisted of 18,135 patients who underwent surgery at Seoul National University Hospital (SNUH) for model development and internal validation and 621 patients who underwent surgery at the Boramae Medical Center (BMC) for external validation. We constructed the DLA by using features extracted from plethysmography (collected at 500 Hz) and hematocrit measured during surgery. Among 18,135 patients in SNUH and 621 patients in BMC, 265 patients (1.46%) and 14 patients (2.25%) received MT during surgery, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of DLA predicting intraoperative MT before 10 min was 0.962 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.948–0.974) in internal validation and 0.922 (95% CI, 0.882–0.959) in external validation, respectively. The DLA can successfully predict intraoperative MT using non-invasive bio-signal waveforms.