Comparison of the different versions of NCCN guidelines for predicting margin-negative resection of pancreatic cancer in patients undergoing upfront surgery

Objectives The purpose of this study was to compare the different versions of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines for defining resectability of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in predicting margin-negative (R0) resection, and to assess inter-reader agreement. Methods This retrospective study included 283 patients (mean age, 65.1 years ± 9.4 [SD]; 155 men) who underwent upfront pancreatectomy for PDAC between 2017 and 2019. Two radiologists independently determined the resectability on preoperative CT according to the 2017, 2019, and 2020 NCCN guidelines. The sensitivity and specificity for R0 resection were analyzed using a multivariable logistic regression analysis with generalized estimating equations. Inter-reader agreement was assessed using kappa statistics. Results R0 resection was accomplished in 239 patients (84.5%). The sensitivity and specificity averaged across two readers were, respectively, 76.6% and 29.5% for the 2020 guidelines, 74.1% and 32.9% for the 2019 guidelines, and 72.6% and 34.1% for the 2017 guidelines. Compared with the 2020 guidelines, both 2019 and 2017 guidelines showed significantly lower sensitivity for R0 resection ( p ≤ .009). Specificity was significantly higher with the 2017 guidelines ( p = .043) than with the 2020 guidelines. Inter-reader agreements for determining the resectability of PDCA were strong (k ≥ 0.83) with all guidelines, being highest with the 2020 guidelines (k = 0.91). Conclusion The 2020 NCCN guidelines showed significantly higher sensitivity for prediction of R0 resection than the 2017 and 2019 guidelines.