Simulating desegregation through affordable housing development: An environmental health impact assessment of Connecticut zoning law

Residential segregation drives exposure and health inequities. We projected the mortality impacts among low-income residents of leveraging an existing 10% affordable housing target as a case study of desegregation policy. We simulated movement into newly allocated housing, quantified changes in six ambient environmental exposures, and used exposure-response functions to estimate deaths averted. Across 1000 simulations, in one year, we found on average 169 (95% CI: 84, 255) deaths averted from changes in greenness, 71 (49, 94) deaths averted from NO2, 9 (4, 14) deaths averted from noise, 1 (1, 2) excess death from O3, and 2 (1, 2) excess deaths from PM2.5, with rates of deaths averted highest among non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White residents. Strengthening desegregation policy may advance environmental health equity. •Simulating movement into new affordable housing reduced racialized segregation.•Desegregation may reduce deaths from environmental exposures.•Deaths averted were driven by changes in greenness, NO2, and noise exposure.•Strengthening desegregation policy can advance environmental health equity.