Inland freshwater aquaculture in a warming world

Climate change potentially threatens the sustainable production of highly valued cold-water fish species in flow-through systems, such as salmonids. By analysing the relationship of water temperature to hydrological characteristics, air temperature, solar exposure, and precipitation, this study predicted temperature dynamics of five temperate cold-water aquaculture facilities under four projected climate change scenarios. Air temperature was found to be directly associated with facility site water temperature, and based on rational assumptions, two of the five facilities were predicted to face critical warming by mid-century. Extreme precipitation events induced acute short-term increases in water temperature of up to 5 °C. Significantly lower warming, roughly equal to the projected climate change–induced increase, was seen with artificial shading lowering temperature by 1 °C. Complementary niche modelling revealed that 37–77 % of current cold-water facilities will likely incur suboptimal climate conditions by the end of the century. Shading of raceways, more efficient water use, and disease management are proposed as key actions to preserve cold-water aquaculture. [Display omitted] •Temperature dynamics were predicted under four projected climate change scenarios.•Water temperature rises significantly less in shaded facilities.•Extreme rain events could induce increases in water temperature of up to 5 °C.•37–77 % of cold-water facilities face suboptimal climate conditions in the future.•Management options are proposed as key actions to preserve cold-water aquaculture.