Modeling population dynamics of invasive pines to optimize their control in native grasslands of Argentina

The spread of invasive alien species over natural environments has become one of the most serious threats to biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems worldwide. Understanding the population attributes that allow a given species to become invasive is crucial for improving prevention and control interventions. Pampas grasslands are particularly sensitive to the invasion of exotic woody plants. In particular, the Ventania Mountains undergo the advance of alien woody plants; among which the Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) stands out due to the extension of the area it covers and the magnitude of the ecological changes associated to its presence. Using a model that describes the population dynamics of the species in the area, we evaluated the expected behavior of the population under different environmental conditions and different management scenarios. When the effect of stochastic fires was simulated, the growth rate was greater than 1 for all the frequencies considered, peaking under fires every nine years, on average. When evaluating the effect of periodic mechanical control of the adult population, the reduction in growth rate was insufficient, except for cutting intensities that significantly exceeded the current operational capacity of the area. Under prescribed fire scenarios, on the other hand, burning frequencies greater than seven years resulted in population reductions. The results highlight the importance of fire in regulating the population of P. halepensis in the Ventania Mountains, with contrasting effects depending on the frequency with which it occurs, which allows considering it as an effective environmental management option for the control of the species. •We use a population model of invasive pines as a tool to optimize its control.•With stochastic fires the population tends to grow in all cases.•Mechanical control is generally insufficient to reduce the rate of population growth.•Fires prescribed every 7 years or less resulted in population reduction.•Fire could be considered an effective management option for Aleppo pine.