Plant-wide byproduct gas distribution under uncertainty in iron and steel industry via quantile forecasting and robust optimization

In the modern iron and steel industry, the efficient distribution of byproduct gases faces significant challenges due to quantity- and quality-related uncertainties of gases. This study presents an optimal approach to gas distribution that addresses this issue by incorporating the energy flow network and the uncertain surplus gases from the manufacturing system. The uncertain optimization problem is formulated as a two-stage robust optimization (TSRO) model, including “here-and-now” decisions aimed at minimizing the start-stop cost of energy conversion units, as well as “wait-and-see” decisions aimed at minimizing the operating cost of gasholders and the penalties resulting from energy excess or shortage. To facilitate practical implementation, we propose a “first quantify, then optimize” approach: (1) quantifying the uncertainty of surplus gases via a conditional quantile regression (CDQ)-based T-step time series model, and (2) finding the optimal solution through a column-and-constraint generation algorithm. Furthermore, a case study is conducted on an industrial energy system to validate the proposed methodology. Computational results, using evaluation indicators, such as MAPE, RMSE, PICP, and PINAW, confirm the effectiveness of the data-driven time series model in accurately quantifying uncertainties in each period. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the proposed TSRO model achieves a favorable balance between robustness and flexibility by selecting the combination of “budget and quantile” and the parameters of storage and conversion units. Comparative results reveal: (1) the optimal objective of the TSRO closely aligns with that of stochastic programming (SP) and is 2.717 times higher than that of deterministic optimization (DO); and (2) the computation time of TSRO is 2.388 times longer than that of DO, yet significantly smaller than that of SP, being only 0.07 times longer. Consequently, TSRO can efficiently find a robust gas distribution solution with the desired level of conservativeness for integrated iron and steel plants. •Present a network flow-based model for byproduct gas distribution in iron and steel plants.•Formulate a two-stage robust optimization model for byproduct gas distribution under uncertainty.•Quantify the uncertainty of gas supply via the quantile-based machine learning technique.•Solve two-stage optimization problem via column-and-constraint generation algorithm.•Validate the proposed methodology via the case study of an i