New urbanization and carbon emissions intensity reduction: Mechanisms and spatial spillover effects

The advancement of new urbanization policy (NU) and the attainment of double carbon targets play pivotal roles in facilitating high-quality economic development in China. This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of the mechanism and spatial spillover effects of NU on carbon emission intensity reduction (CEIR), building upon an examination of the nature of NU and the principles of urban carbon pollution control. The research employs a multi-period difference-in-difference model (DID) to explore the causal relationship between NU and CEIR, using panel data from 278 prefecture-level cities spanning the period of 2006 to 2020. Empirical results demonstrate that the implementation of NU resulted in an 8.4 % reduction in carbon emission intensity (CEI). Furthermore, the analysis of the transmission mechanism reveals that NU stimulates green technology innovation and facilitates the development of industrial agglomeration, thus achieving CEIR. The decomposition of the spatial Durbin model indicates significant spatial spillover effects in the effectiveness of NU, signifying its positive impacts not only within the region but also in generating benefits for surrounding areas. Moreover, the dynamic heterogeneity results indicate that entrepreneurial vitality and urbanization rate exhibit dynamic effects on the policy's CEIR effect, both displaying nonlinear enhancement curves. Based on this, the policy implications of this paper include: The government should enhance regional coordinated governance to address carbon emissions pollution in alignment with China's NU. This can be accomplished by effectively harnessing the driving role of green innovation and industrial agglomeration. Additionally, the local government can actively create an entrepreneurial atmosphere and expedite the urbanization process in order to support NU in the implementation and achievement of CEIR. [Display omitted] •China's new urbanization policy is regarded as a quasi-natural experiment.•Evaluate its direct impact on carbon emission intensity, its indirect mechanisms and spatial spillover effects•The policy has effectively driven carbon emission intensity reduction in local and neighboring cities.•Technological progress and industrial agglomeration are important mechanisms.•The effect of policy implementation is related to the urbanization stage and entrepreneurial vitality.