Peak Performance: Characteristics and Key Factors in the Development of the World Top-8 Swimmers Based on Longitudinal Data

This study aimed to investigate the peak performance characteristics of the world top-8 swimmers and the key factors involved in the journey toward achieving better peak performance. The results of the world top-8 swimmers from 2001 to 2022 were collected from the World Aquatics performance database. Progression to peak performance was tracked with individual quadratic trajectories (1191 cases). Utilizing k-means clustering to group competitive feature variables, this study investigated key developmental factors through a binary logistic regression model, using the odds ratio (OR) to represent whether a factor was favorable (OR > 1) or unfavorable (OR < 1). Significant differences (P < .001) in the peak age between men (23.54/3.80) and women (22.31/4.60) were noticed, while no significant differences (P > .05) in the peak-performance window for both sexes appeared. Peak performance occurred at later ages for the sprint for both sexes, and women had a longer duration in peak-performance window for sprint (P < .05). Peak-performance occurred at later ages for the breaststroke and butterfly for both sexes (P < .05). Binary logistic regression revealed that high first-participation performance (OR = 1.502), high major-competition performance (OR = 4.165), early first-major-competition age (OR = 1.441), participation frequency above 4 times/year in both phase 2 (4.3-8.0 times/y, OR = 3.940; 8.1-20.0 times/y, OR = 5.122) and phase 3 (4.1-7.5 times/y: OR = 5.548; 7.7-15.0 times/y: OR = 7.526), and a career length of 10 years or more (10-15 y, OR = 2.102; 16-31 y, OR = 3.480) were favorable factors for achieving better peak performance. Peak performance characteristics varied across sex, swimming stroke, and race distance in the world top-8 swimmers. Meanwhile, the research indicated that certain specific developmental factors were key conditions for the world top-8 swimmers to achieve better peak performance in the future.