Modified neoadjuvant rectal score as a novel prognostic model for rectal cancer patients who underwent chemoradiotherapy

Background The neoadjuvant rectal score (NAR score) has recently been proposed as a better prognostic model than the conventional TNM classification for rectal cancer patients that have undergone neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. We recently developed an apoptosis-detection technique for assessing the viability of residual tumors in resected specimens after chemoradiotherapy. This study aimed to establish an improved prognostic classification by combining the NAR score and the assessment of the apoptosis of residual cancer cells. Methods We retrospectively enrolled 319 rectal cancer patients who underwent chemoradiotherapy followed by radical surgery. The recurrence-free survival and overall survival of the four models were compared: TNM stage, NAR score, modified TNM stage by re-staging according to cancer cell viability, and modified NAR score also by re-staging. Results Downstaging of the ypT stage was observed in 15.5% of cases, whereas only 4.5% showed downstaging of ypN stage. C-index was highest for the modified NAR score (0.715), followed by the modified TNM, TNM, and NAR score. Similarly, Akaike’s information criterion was smallest in the modified NAR score (926.2), followed by modified TNM, TNM, and NAR score, suggesting that the modified NAR score was the best among these four models. The overall survival results were similar: C-index was the highest (0.767) and Akaike’s information criterion was the smallest (383.9) for the modified NAR score among the four models tested. Conclusion We established a novel prognostic model, for rectal cancer patients that have undergone neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, using a combination of apoptosis-detecting immunohistochemistry and neoadjuvant rectal scores.