Changes in Spirometry Interpretative Strategies: Implications for Classifying COPD and Predicting Exacerbations

Recent guidelines for spirometry interpretation recommend both race-neutral reference equations and use of z score thresholds to define severity of airflow obstruction. How does the transition from race-specific to race-neutral equations impact severity classifications for patients with COPD when using % predicted vs z score thresholds, and do changes in severity correspond to clinical risk? This retrospective cohort study included Black and White patients with COPD and available spirometry from the Johns Hopkins Health System. Global Lung Function Initiative (GLI) 2012 (race-specific) equations and GLI Global (race-neutral) equations were used to determine FEV % predicted and z score values. Patients were classified as having mild, moderate, or severe disease according to % predicted or z score thresholds. Associations between a change in severity classification from race-specific to race-neutral with COPD exacerbations and all-cause hospitalizations were evaluated using logistic regression. This cohort included 13,324 patients, of whom 9,232 patients (69.3%) were White (mean age, 65.7 years) and 4,092 patients (30.7%) were Black (mean age, 61.1 years). More Black than White patients showed a change in severity classification between approaches when using % predicted thresholds (20.2% vs 6.1%; P < .001), but not with z score thresholds (12.6% vs 12.3%; P = .68). An increased severity classification with a race-neutral approach was associated with increased risk of exacerbation when using z score thresholds (OR, 2.34; 95% CI, 1.51-3.63), but not when using % predicted thresholds (OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.61-1.93). A decreased severity classification with a race-neutral approach was associated with lower risk of exacerbation with both % predicted (OR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.28-0.87) and z score (OR 0.67; 95% CI, 0.50-0.90) thresholds. The proportions of Black and White individuals reclassified were similar with z score thresholds, and changes in severity corresponded to clinical risk with z scores. These results support recent recommendations for use of race-neutral equations and z score thresholds for spirometry interpretation.