Water Resources Planning for Broiler Production: Econometric and Time Series Analysis

A profit maximization model and an ARIMA model were developed to assess and plan for future water demand need in broiler production. In planning the future water demand, successive stages of broiler production decisions were taken into consideration. The forecasted numbers of broilers from profit maximizing and ARIMA models depart significantly from the commonly used United States Geological Survey physical model. Analysis indicates 15% slippage in water demand forecasting when the role of economic variables is not considered. We also found that an appropriate lag structure can fully capture the information used in structural models, assuming no structural change.