A Size-Based Probabilistic Assessment of PCB Exposure from Lake Michigan Fish Consumption

The state of Wisconsin has recently issued a fish consumption advisory that includes suggested consumption rates for Lake Michigan fish, based on fish size and PCB concentration. To evaluate the size-based exposure risk from Lake Michigan fish consumption, we estimated PCB exposure probabilities for five Lake Michigan fish species using two Bayesian models. The models confirm that very few individuals of any of the five species are likely to have PCB concentrations low enough to fall into the category in which consumption is unrestricted. Among smaller fish (60 cm). Eating meals from multiple individuals of some species results in a high probability that at least one of the meals will exceed 1.9 mg/kg, the upper PCB concentration recommended for consumption in the advisory.