Towards improving the quality and usefulness of GBD tuberculosis estimates

The authors also carried out an elegant analysis of the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality in 41 of 204 countries and territories with available cause-specific mortality data in 2020–21. Notably, our analysis of the GBD tuberculosis estimates, funded by the IAC Deep Dive, found essentially the same implied duration of tuberculosis by HIV status.3 This finding was in contrast to analyses that suggested the duration of tuberculosis might be shorter in people living with HIV5,6 and WHO assumptions.7 There is potential value in different burden estimation teams interpretating data and making different assumptions, but, particularly for such important analyses as the GBD, we believe these assumptions need to be explicit and justified, and the consequences of them being wrong should be explored. RGW is also funded by the Wellcome Trust (218261/Z/19/Z), US National Institutes of Health (1R01AI147321-01, G-202303-69963, R-202309-71190), European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (RIA208D-2505B), UK Medical Research Council (CCF17-7779 via SET Bloomsbury), the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ES/P008011/1), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-004737, INV-035506), and WHO (2020/985800-0).